![]() Given what we know now about the close calls of the cold war, and what they knew at the time, perhaps this was not so crazy a perspective. The employees of the RAND corporation, in charge of nuclear strategic planning, famously did not contribute to their retirement accounts because they did not expect to live long enough to need them. We have long lived under the very real threat of potential nuclear annihilation. Many of these outcomes, both good and bad, will radically alter the payoffs of various life decisions you might make now. You can and should decide what you think that probability is, and conditional on that happening, your probability of various outcomes. There is some probability that humanity will create transformational AI soon, for various definitions of soon. I am going to step up here, and dare to answer these, those added by Twitter and some raised recently in personal conversations.īefore I begin, it must be said: NONE OF THIS IS INVESTMENT ADVICE. While some ignore the issue, others, in various ways, dramatically overreact. Remember that you are the easiest person to fool. It does mean that you should consider your actions carefully when doing so, and the possibility that you are fooling yourself. That does not mean that you should not make any attempt to improve our chances. ![]() Remember that the default outcome of those working in AI in order to help is to end up working primarily on capabilities, and making the situation worse. In exchange, one avoids major negative outcomes that potentially include things like missing out on the important things in life, ruining one’s financial future and bouts of existential despair.Īlso the risk of doing ill-advised counterproductive things in the name of helping with the problem. It leaves value on the table, both personally and for the world. They live their lives as if such risks do not exist. Many effectively suppress this info, cutting the new information about the future off from the rest of their brain. People who do react by worrying about such AI outcomes are rarely reacting about right given their beliefs. Reacting Properly To Such Information is Hard If this is something that is going to impact your major life decisions, or keep you up at night, you need to develop your own understanding and model, and decide for yourself what you predict. That does not mean you should adapt my position, or anyone else’s position, or mostly use social cognition from those around you, on such questions, no matter what those methods would tell you. Thus I believe this is very likely, although there are some (such as Eliezer Yudkowsky) who consider it more likely still. There are what I consider very good arguments that this is what happens unless we solve extremely difficult problems to prevent it, and that we are unlikely to solve those problems in time. There is also the highly disputed question of how likely it is that if we did create an AGI reasonably soon, it would wipe out all value in the universe. These are definitely world types my model says you should consider plausible. There are also good reasons that AGI, or otherwise transformational AI, might not come to pass for a long time.Īs I say in the Q&A section later, I do not consider imminent transformational AI inevitable in our lifetimes: Some combination of ‘we run out of training data and ways to improve the systems, and AI systems max out at not that much more powerful than current ones’ and ‘turns out there are regulatory and other barriers that prevent AI from impacting that much of life or the economy that much’ could mean that things during our lifetimes turn out to be not that strange. This includes good reasons to worry about AI wiping out all value in the universe, or AI killing everyone, or other similar very bad outcomes. There are good reasons to worry about AI. Some people, including some of those same people, need practical advice. Some people ( although very far from all people) are worried that AI will wipe out all value in the universe. ![]()
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